Election Night Watch: Senate Control Hinges on Seven Tight States

The race for control of the U.S. Senate will likely be decided by seven competitive states, while control of the House may become clear sooner due to larger margins. Two states use ranked-choice voting, a process that can extend the counting period into days or weeks. Because the House majority is not dependent on a single seat, that outcome is less volatile than the Senate, where a single flip can change the balance of power.

Polling begins in the Southeast and Midwest at 7 p.m. Eastern Time. In Georgia, Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is favored to defeat Republican Rep. Mike Collins. The governor’s race is tighter, pitting Republican nominee Rick Jackson against former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms. Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger stated that new laws require counties to report results within one hour of polls closing. In South Carolina, the Senate contest between Sen. Darline Graham and Democratic nominee Annie Andrews is described as a toss-up by national polls, though the Cook Political Report gives Republicans an advantage.

By 7:30 p.m. Eastern Time, attention shifts to North Carolina and Ohio. North Carolina holds the most likely Senate flip for Democrats, with former Gov. Roy Cooper challenging former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley. Democrats last won a Senate seat there in 2008. In Ohio, Republican Sen. Jon Husted and former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown are deadlocked in the first of seven tight Senate races. In the governor’s race, Democrat Amy Acton leads Republican Vivek Ramaswamy in polls. Ramaswamy recently aired an attack ad featuring Acton’s estranged mother, a move that has generated significant blowback that could affect both candidates.

At 8 p.m. Eastern Time, polls close in more than half the country, including Florida, Pennsylvania, and Maine. In Maine, incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins faces a tough challenge from Democratic nominee Troy Jackson. This is the only state won by Kamala Harris in 2024 where a Republican holds a Senate seat. In Florida, Republican Rep. Byron Donalds holds a slight poll advantage over David Jolly for governor. The state’s redrew congressional maps will face their first test, with the Cook Political Report identifying seven competitive House seats, two of which are toss-ups.

Pennsylvania, which had the most competitive House races during the cycle, now sees all three former toss-ups leaning toward Democrats. In New Hampshire, Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas has widened his lead over former Republican Sen. John Sununu, though Republicans view the state as a long-shot pickup opportunity given the expected Republican victory in the governor’s race.

By 9 p.m. Eastern Time, polls close in over 80% of states. Major Senate races are underway in Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Texas. In Texas, Democratic nominee James Talarico faces Republican Ken Paxton. Talarico may lead early as mail-in ballots are counted, but Paxton is expected to gain ground as counties report totals. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton has made the race for Sen. Roger Marshall too close to call. In Iowa, Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek competes against Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson in a close open Senate race.

Michigan remains a focal point as Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers contest the governor’s office. Republicans have run Islamophobic ads against El-Sayed, who has responded by emphasizing his personal story. The race remains a toss-up, though the state’s governor contest favors Democrat Jocelyn Benson. In Minnesota, Republican candidate Michelle Tafoya is not expected to win but may keep the race close for Democrats, who nominated progressive Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan.

Polls close in Montana, Nevada, and Utah at 10 p.m. Eastern Time. Montana’s 1st Congressional District is a toss-up between Democrat Sam Forstag and Republican Aaron Flint. In Nevada, the governor’s race between Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo and Democrat Aaron Ford is considered a toss-up. The final batch of polls closes at 11 p.m. Eastern Time in California, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington. California’s new congressional map, drawn in 2025 in response to redistricting battles, has tilted close House races toward Democrats.