Agudat Yisrael and Naftali Bennett May Decide Israel's Next Government

Israel enters its final hours before voting with political establishment figures assessing that Agudat Yisrael and Naftali Bennett could determine the shape of the next government.

The three-member haredi faction led by Yitzhak Goldknopf is being discussed as a potential backer of an opposition-led government. In exchange, Agudat Yisrael might secure budgetary agreements. However, this arrangement would likely still require votes from Arab parties to form a majority.

These calculations follow months of internal friction within United Torah Judaism. In August, Maariv reported that Agudat Yisrael was exploring new political options, including cooperation with Gadi Eisenkot. This exploration occurred while the party clashed with Degel Hatorah over the haredi military draft and relations with Benjamin Netanyahu. Rabbi Dov Lando also sent a letter expressing reservations about maintaining the commitment to the Netanyahu-led bloc.

Goldknopf faces a specific hurdle regarding his voter base, which largely identifies with the Right. Political assessments indicate that any visible support for a change bloc government could drive his supporters toward Likud or Otzma Yehudit.

Attention has also shifted to former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. If neither major bloc secures the 61 seats required for a Knesset majority, Bennett could potentially join a Netanyahu-led government. This scenario is considered remote. However, some in political circles view Bennett as the only leader in the change bloc with the right-wing background to make such a move, despite complications from his current party composition.

Avigdor Liberman has also been mentioned as a possible candidate to bridge the divide, given his history as a defense minister in a Netanyahu cabinet. Current assessments, however, suggest Liberman is unlikely to take such a step due to personal and political disagreements with the Prime Minister.

These scenarios remain assessments rather than finalized agreements. The central issue for coalition negotiations will be which politician is willing to shift their political base to secure a governing majority.