Netanyahu's bloc falls two seats short of Knesset majority

Local media in Israel projected that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his allies will secure 53 seats in the 120-seat Knesset. This count is two seats short of the 61 needed to form a governing majority. Opposition parties are projected to hold 48 seats, while Arab-led parties, which also seek to unseat Netanyahu, are projected to win 19 seats.

Final results may arrive Thursday evening after roughly 500,000 absentee ballots are counted. These votes come from military personnel, diplomats, and individuals in prisons and hospitals. Local media do not expect this count to dramatically alter the seat projections. Netanyahu remains in power until a new government is sworn in.

The path to a majority now depends on coalition negotiations. Former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, the chief rival to Netanyahu, has said he is open to working with Arab-led parties. He spoke on Thursday of a government in service to all that reflects the will of the people. Eisenkot did not explicitly mention partnering with these parties in his first public statement since Wednesday, but he has previously indicated such an alliance is possible.

Late Wednesday, the Joint List, an Arab-led party, announced it was open to political cooperation. The party cited an "unprecedented show of strength" and Jewish voters willing to "swim against the tide of racism." Small rallies supporting a coalition that includes Arab-led parties took place overnight in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. No Arab party has joined a coalition government since 2021, and that brief stint ended in collapse.

Likud, Netanyahu's party, which received the most votes, accused Arab-led parties of stealing the election. The party asked the election committee to investigate but provided no specific evidence. The committee stated that reported irregularities were low in a relatively calm election. President Isaac Herzog will task a candidate with forming a government next week. Traditionally, the leader of the largest party receives this task, but it is not required by law.

Herzog signaled on Wednesday that he wants to avoid a new election, a stance shared by Eisenkot. If multiple attempts to form a government fail, Israel faces another vote early next year. Such a scenario would raise questions about whether Arab citizens and the tens of thousands of Israelis who returned home from abroad would vote again. Netanyahu has long resisted a public inquiry into the security failures that led to the Hamas-led assault on Oct. 7, 2023.

The election occurred amid threats of further strikes against Iran, which the Trump administration discussed for after the Nov. 3 midterm elections. Netanyahu could use a renewed conflict to press for a unity government. For Arab citizens, who make up 20% of the population, the results offer cautious hope. Brosli Elias, a resident of Nazareth, said, "God willing, we will have something for us in the government, something that will bring us our rights."