Likud Holds Lead in Israel Vote, but Coalition Math Stalls

Jerusalem has entered a period of political uncertainty following Tuesday’s general election, which weakened Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s hold on power while failing to produce a clear alternative. With 88% of ballots counted, Likud leads with 20.7% of the vote, while centrist rival Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party trails with 16.2%. Arab-led parties secured 15% of the total, a historic increase that complicates efforts to form a governing majority.

The current political impasse stems from a shift in voter sentiment. Turnout reached nearly 78%, the highest since 1999, driven by frustration over Netanyahu’s far-right allies and military draft exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox population. Despite these gains, opposition blocs have not capitalized fully on public grief over the October 7, 2023 attack. Likud’s share of the vote dropped from 23.4% in 2022, and security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir saw support erode after controversial remarks regarding Palestinian detainees.

The path to a stable government now hinges on complex negotiations. Neither Netanyahu’s camp nor Eisenkot’s side projects enough seats to reach the 61 required for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. Local media estimates place Likud’s allied bloc at 53 seats and Yashar’s allied bloc at 48. Arab-led parties are projected to hold 19 seats, positioning them as potential kingmakers. Eisenkot has suggested he could partner with Arab parties if they recognize Israel as a Jewish state and Hamas as an extremist group, a condition some of his likely allies have previously rejected.

Netanyahu, seeking to remain the country’s longest-serving prime minister, warned against a “dangerous government” that might include Arab parties, whose constituents make up 20% of the population. His Likud party claimed the election was “stolen” by Arab parties, though the Central Elections Committee stated reports of irregularities were lower than in previous cycles. President Isaac Herzog, who can task any party leader with forming a government, said on Wednesday that Israel must do everything possible to avoid another round of elections.

Final results are expected by Thursday evening, once approximately 500,000 absentee ballots from military personnel and diplomats are counted. Elad Naveh, the control manager at the Central Elections Committee, said these late-counted votes are not expected to alter the seat projections significantly. If no coalition secures a majority, Israel faces new elections early next year, a scenario that occurred five times between 2019 and 2022. Eisenkot told supporters that holding another vote after such high turnout would be a mistake, citing a duty to respect the will of the people.

The strong performance of Arab-led parties has intensified debate about national identity. Mansour Abbas, leader of the United Arab List, declared that his party is “not on the sidelines,” referring to the group’s brief role in a governing coalition in 2021. Yair Golan of the Democrats party argued that Israeli politics must stop fearing Arab participation to avoid continued division. In Tel Aviv, voter Hanna Doukhan stated she sees no possibility of forming a government without Arab partners, while others in Nazareth expressed hope that the result signals a return to rationality.