Netanyahu pledges Iran strike as Likud holds slim lead in fractured election

For Israeli voters who spent Tuesday casting ballots for a new parliament, the immediate consequence is a government that may not form for days. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed supporters at Likud headquarters in West Jerusalem hours after polls closed, declaring that a right-wing administration is essential for long-term security. He argued that Israel cannot rely on coalitions with Arab parties, describing them as opposed to the nation's existence.

Early tallies show a tight race with no clear winner. With more than half of ballots counted, The Times of Israel projected Netanyahu’s bloc to capture 56 seats, while Gadi Eisenkot’s alliance is tracking for 49. Neither group has secured the numbers needed to govern alone. Specific party counts indicate Likud is on track for an estimated 27 seats, compared to 21 for Eisenkot’s Yashar party, according to projections from Israeli Channels 12 and 13.

Netanyahu positioned Likud as the largest party in Israel, though he acknowledged that the final results are one or two days away. He listed specific military and diplomatic actions since taking office in 2022 as evidence of his administration's success. "We worked wonders that changed the face of the Middle East," he told the crowd, citing the elimination of leaders including Mohammed Deif, Ismail Haniyeh, Yahya Sinwar, Hassan Nasrallah, and Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

The Prime Minister stated that Israel established security zones in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria. He claimed these moves removed an immediate existential threat. "Iran is weaker than ever; Israel is stronger than ever," he said. Netanyahu said Israel has a historical opportunity with United States President Donald Trump to remove the threat of Iran permanently.

Analysts question whether the projected lead will translate into stable governance. Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli ambassador and consul general in New York City, noted that the leading party may have to strike an uncomfortable coalition deal. He observed that opposition voters are unlikely to support a bloc that partners with Netanyahu’s camp.

Marwan Bishara, a senior political analyst for Al Jazeera, said Netanyahu projected a brave face during the speech. Bishara noted that the claim of being the largest party obscures the fact that this is the lowest seat count for Likud since 2009. Dan Perry, another political analyst, told Al Jazeera that Netanyahu used the address to spin the situation after exit polls were released.