Netanyahu's bloc hits 54 seats as count nears end, leaving Israel without a clear winner

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political camp secured 54 seats in the 120-member Knesset as of Wednesday morning, according to partial results from Israeli media. This figure places his right-wing and religious bloc one seat short of the 55 needed to form a majority government on its own. The count stands at approximately 70% completed, leaving the final outcome uncertain.

The election marks the first national vote since the Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023. Both Netanyahu and former military chief Gadi Eisenkot claimed victory on Tuesday night, but the shifting numbers have created confusion among voters regarding the next steps. Eisenkot’s Yashar party currently holds 20 seats, while Netanyahu’s Likud leads with 27.

The results diverge from exit polls released Tuesday evening, which had sparked celebrations at Eisenkot’s campaign headquarters in Tel Aviv. At the time, Eisenkot urged Netanyahu to step aside. Netanyahu responded from his headquarters in Jerusalem, declaring Likud the largest party and calling for a strong right-wing administration.

The path forward now hinges on coalition-building. Parties outside Netanyahu’s bloc collectively hold 66 seats, a majority that could challenge his leadership if they secure cooperation from Arab lawmakers. The Joint List holds 13 seats, and Ra'am, led by Mansour Abbas, holds six, bringing the total for Arab parties to 19.

President Donald Trump took credit for Netanyahu’s stronger-than-expected performance on Wednesday morning. In a post on Truth Social, Trump shared a statement from Irving C. Schwartz claiming the presidential endorsement shifted the race's momentum. Trump later told reporters near Air Force One that he heard the exit polls were wrong and that Netanyahu did very well. He suggested his endorsement helped the prime minister significantly.

Mansour Abbas of Ra'am indicated openness to negotiations, stating that figures from both sides of the political divide have approached him. Yair Golan, leader of the Democrats party, called for a new government in cooperation with Arab parties. Golan wrote on X that 65 seats is greater than 55, asserting that every Israeli citizen's vote carries equal weight regardless of origin.

However, disagreements exist within the opposition. Eisenkot has previously opposed including Ra'am in his coalition. Netanyahu has warned against any government dependent on Arab parties. The final outcome will depend on whether these factions can bridge their differences or if a third path of deadlock emerges.

Three scenarios remain possible. Netanyahu could attempt to expand his coalition by winning support from at least seven lawmakers outside his bloc. Alternatively, Eisenkot could seek enough parliamentary recommendations, potentially including those from Arab parties, to persuade President Isaac Herzog to grant him the first opportunity to form a government. A third possibility is another deadlock, leading to another election.

Official results are scheduled for November 4. Herzog will then consult with parliamentary factions and select a lawmaker to attempt to form the next government. That candidate will have 28 days to negotiate coalition agreements, with a possible 14-day extension. Until a new government takes office, Netanyahu will remain prime minister.